Page 31 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

South Africa Scenarios

Legend: Predicted achievement of NDP priorities for 2030.
Not affected Will likely achieve May achieve >50% May achieve <50% Will not achieve

Perpetual Fake it until we Owning our Predicted achievement
Hangover make it , or not? future of NDP priorities for 2030

Social
Policy, economic and Committed, competent Racial and social tensions 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
social failures are held as individuals inspire transition into genuine and developmental state
evidence of entrenched SA through their reconciliation, unity, and 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
À>VˆÃ“° ,>Vˆ> Ìi˜Ãˆœ˜Ã] competence, showing Vœ““œ˜ «ÕÀ«œÃi° -œÕÌ and job creation
hysteria, and victimhood that real change is Africans emerge from

>Ài ˆ˜Ìi˜Ìˆœ˜>Þ >“«ˆwi` possible. General self-imposed enclaves 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
amid rising levels of denunciation of racial to live comfortably 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
ۈœi˜Vi° ,iÃi˜Ì“i˜Ì incitement improves alongside one another, through reliable, quality
spirals into irreconcilable social cohesion, promoting common basic services
ÜVˆ> `ˆvviÀi˜Við constitutionalism, and purpose and social 5 Spatial integration, human
economic growth. Vœ iȜ˜° settlements, and local
government
6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world
National policy
Redistributionist socialist Policy remains œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì `iÀi}Տ>Ìià 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
ideologies dogma, led by contradictory and aspects of the labour and developmental state
idealism and populism, confusing. People market, secures property 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
takes the place of growth- start ignoring the rights (abandoning and job creation
vœVÕÃi` ÀivœÀ“ˆÃÌ «œˆVÞ° Government and the expropriation without 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
Race-based policies are State. Resistance compensation), repeals
“œÀi ÃÌÀˆVÌÞ i˜vœÀVi`° continues to grow, and various aspects of 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
An assault is launched Government quashes race-based policies in through reliable, quality
against democratic any dissent in its tracks. favour of empowerment basic services
institutions, property based on growth and 5 Spatial integration, human
rights, and critical or employment, and works settlements, and local
`ˆÃÃi˜Ìˆ˜} ۜˆVià ° with the private sector to government
ÀiLՈ` -Ƃ° 6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world
Service delivery
Protests increase A more coordinated Policy changes are 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
dramatically, take on State delivers better ivviV̈ÛiÞ ˆ“«i“i˜Ìi`° and developmental state
repugnant racial and ÃiÀۈVið *ÀœÌiÃÌà }ˆÛi An impressive and 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
ethnic undertones, and way to people taking ivwVˆi˜Ì VˆÛˆ ÃiÀۈVi and job creation
turns to violence and charge of their destinies, arises, irrespective of
destruction of assets. The with the State removing the political party in 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
“moral underground” structural/regulatory «œÜiÀ° -Ƃ ˆÃ > VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ ˆ˜ 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
w˜`à ˆÌ ˆ˜VÀi>Ș}Þ barriers to self- which people do things through reliable, quality
`ˆvwVÕÌ Ìœ v՘V̈œ˜ ÃÕ««œÀÌ° ƂÌ œÕ} iÃà for themselves, and the basic services
>˜` v>Vià i݈ÃÌi˜Ìˆ> challenged, SA still relies œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì i«Ã ̜
challenges due to a heavily on the “moral create the conditions for 5 Spatial integration, human
dissolution of SA’s social ՘`iÀ}ÀœÕ˜`°» Ì i“ ̜ `œ Ü° settlements, and local
fabric. government
6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world

IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION 29