Page 26 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

SECTION 2: South Africa Scenarios

2.1 How do we create a future in which all citizens can prosper?

“Ground rush is a skydiving term used to denote what Yet, for some reason best
happens if you wait too long to pull the ripcord of your known to us, we did not listen.
«>À>V ÕÌi° čÌ wÀÃÌ] ÞœÕ ÌՓLi ÃiÀi˜iÞ Ì ÀœÕ} > LÕi‡ We did not act. We did not
green blur, but at an altitude of 400 meters or so, the pull the ripcord. We talked.
earth clicks into focus and the ground comes rushing up We dwelled on the past.
to meet you. An instant later, you’re dead… So here we We fought. We watched the
are, then, hurtling towards the ground at terminal velocity. risks materialise. And now
South Africa could pull out of its present dive and start the hole is deeper. The frog
growing strongly again at the end of this decade, but has been boiled. Our journey
the intervening years are likely to be tough, and the risks is so much more uphill. But
daunting. It is late in the day and now more apparent than we have no choice. We must
ever that those who told you there was nothing to fear stop talking. We must act in
have been wrong all along.” unison. We must turn the tide.

‘The Rise or Fall of South Africa’ by Frans Cronje, We must build our own future,
quoted in our 2021 Report together.

+P VJKU TGRQTV CU KP QWT CPF TGRQTVU YG TG CHƂTO
QWT WPGSWKXQECN DGNKGH VJCV RTQCEVKXG TKUM OCPCIGOGPV KU C MG[
FTKXGT QH QWT EQWPVT[oU CDKNKV[ VQ ETGCVG C HWVWTG KP YJKEJ CNN EKVK\GPU
can prosper.
The need to drive a focused, coherent approach to scenario
RNCPPKPI UVTCVGI[ FGƂPKVKQP UVTCVGI[ KORNGOGPVCVKQP TKUM
OCPCIGOGPV CPF TKUM OKVKICVKQP CETQUU CNN UGEVQTU QH QWT GEQPQO[
TGOCKPU CDUQNWVGN[ KORGTCVKXG
1WT TKUM CRRGVKVG HTCOGYQTMU OWUV TGƃGEV QWT QTICPKUCVKQPUo
UVTCVGIKGU CPF DWFIGVU CPF OWUV EQNNGEVKXGN[ DG CNKIPGF VQ QWT
EQWPVT[oU QDLGEVKXGU VQ DG C WUGHWN KPƃWGPEGT QH QWT LQKPV HWVWTG

24 IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION