Page 30 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

SECTION 2: South Africa Risk scenarios continued

Legend: Predicted achievement of NDP priorities for 2030.
Not affected Will likely achieve May achieve >50% May achieve <50% Will not achieve

Perpetual Fake it until we Owning our Predicted achievement
Hangover make it , or not? future of NDP priorities for 2030

Leadership capacity
There is no sense of The effectiveness and Strong leaders in the right 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
leadership for sustainable integrity of the national positions in all economic and developmental state
prosperity across leadership across all sectors work together 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
ÜVˆiÌÞ° *Àœ«œ˜i˜Ìà œv economic sectors in cohesive structures and job creation
sustainability and good are increasing, along to promote sustainable 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
}œÛiÀ˜>˜Vi >Ài ۈˆwi` with promoting an prosperity despite
>à VœÕ˜ÌiÀ ÀiۜṎœ˜>ÀÞ° inspirational vision that personal differences, by 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
Populist leaders live in «ÕÌà -č wÀÃÌ] >V ˆiÛi` making tough decisions through reliable, quality
luxury while most people through national and embedding good basic services
ˆÛi ˆ˜ «œÛiÀÌÞ° consensus. However, governance in all 5 Spatial integration, human
outcomes are not yet spheres of society and settlements, and local
materialised. Ì i iVœ˜œ“Þ° government
6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world
Institutional capacity
œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì ˆÃ Üi>Ž >˜` Idealistic and populist Senior leaders involved 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
divided: fragmentation, ideologies remain, but in corruption across the and developmental state
factionalism, and SOEs are strengthened economy are prosecuted 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
Vœ˜vÕȜ˜ Àiˆ}˜° œ – albeit too slowly to ÃÕVViÃÃvՏÞ° -Ƃ LՈ`à and job creation
visible action against LÀˆ˜} >LœÕÌ `iw˜ˆÌˆÛi on pockets of excellence 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
ÜÀœ˜}`œiÀà ˆÃ iۈ`i˜Ì° change by 2030. to improve poorly
œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì½Ã >ÕÃÌiÀˆÌÞ Education outcomes «iÀvœÀ“ˆ˜} ˆ˜Ã̈ÌṎœ˜Ã° 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
“i>ÃÕÀià >Ài Ã̈LœÀ˜° seem to improve, albeit Appropriate privatisation through reliable, quality
`ÕV>̈œ˜ œÕÌVœ“ià too slowly to make a of State-owned entities basic services
Vœ˜Ìˆ˜Õià ̜ Üi>Ži˜° difference in the short Vœ““i˜Við / i “>ÌÀˆV 5 Spatial integration, human
term. While we struggle mathematics pass rate settlements, and local
with our internal ˆ˜VÀi>Ãià È}˜ˆwV>˜ÌÞ° government
Vœ˜yˆVÌÃ] > Vœ““œ˜ 6 Social cohesion and safe
enemy, such as a failed communities
stated claims our future. 7 A better Africa and world
Politics
>V̈œ˜Ã ÜˆÌ ˆ˜ Ì i Ƃ The ANC is unable to / i Ƃ ՘ˆÌià Li ˆ˜` 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
deepens together with overcome its internal a reformist leadership or and developmental state
economic and social squabbles, internal meets minds with other 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
V >i˜}ið / i Ƃ Vœ˜yˆVÌ iÃV>>ÌiÃ] >˜` parties, based on stable and job creation
unites behind a corrupt its support weakens support, around sensible 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
leadership, drifts closer rapidly, with increasingly economic reforms to
̜ Ì i ] >˜` LiVœ“ià diminished national labour laws, property 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
more introspective, relevance. A viable rights, and the need for through reliable, quality
iÝVÕ`ˆ˜} > iÃi° -Ƃ opposition overthrows effective empowerment basic services
returns to an era of the ANC by 2030. «œˆVˆið 5 Spatial integration, human
VœÀÀի̈œ˜° settlements, and local
government
6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world

28 IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION