Page 33 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

South Africa Scenarios

SECTION 2: South Africa Risk scenarios continued

Legend: Predicted achievement of NDP priorities for 2030.
Not affected Will likely achieve May achieve >50% May achieve <50% Will not achieve
Perpetual Fake it until we Owning our Consequence for NDP
Hangover make it , or not? future priorities for 2030
Global trends

Anti-establishment World markets The world remains 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
feeling increases, deteriorate and fewer deeply divided but and developmental state
aided by social media options are available to no seriously dramatic 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
trends, with highly mitigate the deeper and events occur. Global and job creation
՘«Ài`ˆVÌ>Li œÕÌVœ“ið longer lasting impacts economic growth
1˜iÝ«iVÌi` Ü>Àà LÀi>Ž œ˜ Ì i }œL> iVœ˜œ“Þ° rates remain subdued 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
out between more œL> iVœ˜œ“ˆV «œˆVÞ compared to the last 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
than two protagonist changes negatively century. Free trade, free through reliable, quality
VœÕ˜ÌÀˆià ­i°}° ˆ˜> >˜` ˆ“«>VÌ -Ƃ° ˜VÀi>Ãi` movement of people, basic services
Ì i 1-] ÜˆÌ >«>˜ >˜` ˜>̈œ˜>ˆÃ“ Vœ˜yˆVÌà and the sharing of
Australia) over existential ÜˆÌ ƂvÀˆV>˜ 1˜ˆÌÞ technology continue 5 Spatial integration, human
resources, leading to ˆ˜ˆÌˆ>̈Ûið to decline for the settlements, and local
affecting non-protagonist foreseeable future. government
countries unpredictably 6 Social cohesion and safe
ˆ˜ iVœ˜œ“ˆV ÌiÀ“ð communities
7 A better Africa and world
Climate change
The link between climate The bailouts of State- International 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
change and human owned companies cooperation on climate and developmental state
activity is denied with and emerging market change improves 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
no coordinated solution “survivalism” dictate È}˜ˆwV>˜ÌÞ° iÜ and job creation
for its dire humanitarian SA's reaction to climate products associated
ˆ“«>VÌð -œÕÌ ƂvÀˆV>˜Ã V >˜}i° " >˜` with clean energy is 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
are so caught up younger generation developed, on par with 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
in political/ social demands for more microelectronics and through reliable, quality
squabbles, that efforts to sustainable solutions to the internet. South basic services
address climate change is carbon emissions are African renewable
seen as an unaffordable ignored, or lip-service is energy and clean 5 Spatial integration, human
ÕÝÕÀÞ] Vœ˜yˆV̈˜} ÜˆÌ paid to poorly thought- product economies settlements, and local
the goal of greater Ì ÀœÕ} Ì>À}iÌð contribute to national government
«ÀœÃ«iÀˆÌÞ vœÀ >° and regional energy 6 Social cohesion and safe
security. communities
7 A better Africa and world

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W. E. B. Du Bois

IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION 31