Page 32 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

SECTION 2: South Africa Risk scenarios continued

Legend: Predicted achievement of NDP priorities for 2030.
Not affected Will likely achieve May achieve >50% May achieve <50% Will not achieve
Perpetual Fake it until we Owning our Consequence for NDP
Hangover make it , or not? future priorities for 2030
Inequality

Two classes of South A new model of An equitable land 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
čvÀˆV>˜Ã i݈ÃÌ\ œ˜i authoritarian capitalism reform solution is found and developmental state
within the walls and one sees the erosion of and high volume, quality 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
outside the walls, having democratic rights and agricultural products and job creation
little to do with each freedoms but also an >Ài «Àœ`ÕVi`° / i
other. Unemployment improvement in the economic rebounds and 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
continues to rise as material conditions collaboration between 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
-œÕÌ čvÀˆV>˜Ã w} Ì œÛiÀ of almost all South the formal and informal through reliable, quality
ÃV>ÀVi œLÃ] iÝ>ViÀL>Ìi` ƂvÀˆV>˜Ã° sectors encourages basic services
by an increase in entrepreneurial
Ýi˜œ« œLˆV >ÌÌ>VŽÃ >˜` development, leading 5 Spatial integration, human
fake news. to improved living settlements, and local
Vœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜Ã° government
6 Social cohesion and safe
communities
7 A better Africa and world
Economy
The economy stagnates The economy declines. The global economy 1 Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] iÌ ˆV>]
՘̈ ÀiViÃȜ˜ ˆÌð / i Bilateral agreements recovers for the long- and developmental state
State pursues reckless stave off some impacts ÌiÀ“° -Ƃ >««Àœ>V ià > 2 Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜
out-of-date socialist of foreign economic x¯ }ÀœÜÌ À>Ìi° œV> and job creation
and market-unfriendly policy changes. LÕȘiÃà Vœ˜w`i˜Vi
policies, leading to -iv‡ÃÕvwVˆi˜VÞ ˆ˜VÀi>Ãið ƂÕÃÌiÀˆÌÞ 3 `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ] >˜` i>Ì
ratings downgrades and increases as a survival measures arrests 4 œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i
V>«ˆÌ> yˆ} Ì° ˜y>̈œ˜] mechanism driving V>«ˆÌ> yˆ} Ì° œÀiˆ}˜ through reliable, quality
government debt, entrepreneurship. direct investment and basic services
and interest rates soar, Communities take care investment ratings
causing widespread of their own education, ˆ“«ÀœÛi° -Ƃ] ÜˆÌ > 5 Spatial integration, human
«ÕLˆV `iiV̈œ˜° health care, security, booming middle class, settlements, and local
*Àœœ˜}i`ÉÈ}˜ˆwV>˜Ì and other needs, ˆÃ ƂvÀˆV>½Ã i>`ˆ˜} government
global contraction drives across racial lines. SA is iVœ˜œ“Þ° ˆ˜iÀ> 6 Social cohesion and safe
the domestic economic unable to avoid “junk Li˜iwVˆ>̈œ˜ >˜` communities
Vœ˜ÌÀ>V̈œ˜° status,” or to improve increased manufacturing 7 A better Africa and world
its investment ratings make SA less reliant on
sustainably. ÃÕ«iÀ«œÜiÀð

30 IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION