Page 28 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

SECTION 2: South Africa Risk scenarios continued

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SCENARIOS

IRMSA

Perpetual hangover Fake it until we make it, or not? Owning our future

Short-termism, social We understand the results of a We jealously protect our
bankruptcy, and distances “Perpetual Hangover” and have ˜>̈œ˜> Üi‡Liˆ˜}° 7i Ì>Ži
between societal groups lofty goals to rebuild our national individual and collective
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi° 7i `œ˜½Ì VœÕ˜ÌiÀ >ÃÃiÌð ÕÌ Üi >Ài ˜œÌ «Ài«>Ài` V >À}i œv œÕÀ vÕÌÕÀi° 7i ܜÀŽ
populism, racial polarisation, or desperate enough to make the to eliminating the noise in the
and short-sighted economic ̜Õ} V>Ã ˜ii`i` ̜ ÌÕÀ˜ Ì i ̈`i° system that distracts us from
«œˆVˆiÃ] >˜` `œ˜½Ì ܜÀŽ We hope that things will eventually œÕÀ Vœ““œ˜ «ÕÀ«œÃi° 7i
̜Ü>À`à > Vœ““œ˜ «ÕÀ«œÃi° recover, we ignore the elephant in build national consensus to
We refuse to contemplate the room and continue to hope for `ÀˆÛi > Àiȏˆi˜Ì ÜVˆiÌÞ° 7i
the ultimate implosion of the Ì i LiÃÌ° optimise our limited resources
State as groups pursue their to achieve a common goal
own goals to the exclusion of across all sectors of our
> œÌ iÀð iVœ˜œ“Þ°

Indlulamithi

Gwara Gwara: iSbhujwa: Nayi le Walk:
A Floundering False Dawn An Enclave Bourgeois Nation A Nation in Step with Itself

SA is a nation is that is torn We are a loose-limbed, jumpy, and South Africans drive growing
between immobility and frenetic nation, torn by deepening social cohesion, economic
restless energy, a demoralised, social divides and cynical self- expansion, and a renewed
`ˆÃœÀ`iÀÞ] `iV>ވ˜} >˜`° ˆ˜ÌiÀiÃÌ° Ãi˜Ãi œv Vœ˜Ã̈ÌṎœ˜>ˆÃ“°

Frans Cronje

Fall of South Africa Jump to the Left Step to the Right Rise of South Africa

The mood of the people The moderate majority / i -Ì>Ìi ˆ}˜œÀiÃ Ì i “>œÀˆÌ޽à The State embraces deep
and government policies œÃià ÃÜ>Þ° œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì½Ã reform calls to pursue populist structural reform, through
are aligned with the liberalising reform efforts, «œˆVˆið ˆÛˆ ˆLiÀ̈ià >Ài policies aligned with the
National Democratic in the face of impending curtailed, the economy shrinks interests of people, resulting
Revolution but sets in bankruptcy, are rejected, >˜` ˆÛˆ˜} ÃÌ>˜`>À`à `iVˆ˜i° ˆ˜ > ۈÀÌ՜Õà ÀivœÀ“ VÞVi°
motion a negative socio- ÌÀˆ}}iÀˆ˜} È}˜ˆwV>˜Ì Irreconcilable tensions result in The economy recovers
economic spiral from which «œˆÌˆV> V >˜}ið / ˆÃ vast political shifts, and a centre- quickly, allowing sharply
is it impossible to recover, causes the rise of a right political movement governs ˆ“«ÀœÛi` ˆÛˆ˜} ÃÌ>˜`>À`ð
iÛi˜ ˆ˜ Ì i “i`ˆÕ“‡ÌiÀ“° new leftist government LÞ ÓäÎä° Þ Ì i ÓäÎäÃ] -Ƃ ˆÃ >
leading the country into i>`ˆ˜} i“iÀ}ˆ˜} “>ÀŽiÌ°
Ì i ÓäÎäð

26 IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION