Page 29 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report
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South Africa Scenarios

                                                      Clem Sunter


          A new variant or virus appears with acute regulations,   "“ˆVÀœ˜  È}˜>Ã  ̅i  i˜`  œv   "6  ‡£™]  VÀi>̈˜}
          iVœ˜œ“ˆV `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜] >˜` “ˆÃiÀÞ°  ˜y>̈œ˜ >˜` ̅i   global herd immunity and permanent lifestyle
          cost of living accelerates, causing wide-spread     V…>˜}ið  /…i  vÀii  i˜ÌiÀ«ÀˆÃi  ÃÞÃÌi“  >`>«ÌÃ
          anger, altering the general social and political    ̜  >V…ˆiÛi  >  v>ˆÀiÀ  œÕÌVœ“i  ܈̅œÕÌ  `iy>̈˜}
          `ޘ>“ˆV° Ƃ˜Ìˆ‡iÃÌ>LˆÃ…“i˜Ì viiˆ˜}à }ÀœÜ° 77    ]   i˜ÌÀi«Ài˜iÕÀˆ>  >V̈ۈÌÞ°   œ`iÀ˜  Vœ““Õ˜ˆV>̈œ˜Ã
          ̅i  w˜>  Ü>À  LiÌÜii˜  `i“œVÀ>VÞ  >˜`  >Õ̜VÀ>VÞ]   technology and intense diplomacy prevent global
          LÀi>ŽÃ  œÕÌ°   ˆˆœ˜Ã  œv  ˆ““ˆ}À>˜Ìà  “œÛi  vÀœ“   “ˆˆÌ>ÀÞ  Vœ˜yˆVÌ°   >̈œ˜Ã  Å>Ài  ˜iÜ  ÌiV…˜œœ}ˆiÃ
          countries uninhabitable due to extreme weather      to make renewable energy cheaper than fossil fuel
          conditions to relatively unaffected countries       i˜iÀ}Þ°  ,ˆV…  ˜>̈œ˜Ã  “>Ži  ÃÕLÃÌ>˜Ìˆ>  }À>˜Ìà  ̜
          >à  LœÀ`iÀà  LiVœ“i  «œÀœÕð  /…i  ˆ˜ÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜>    poor nations to assist in funding the transition to
          communication network is interrupted, in the        > }Àii˜ iVœ˜œ“Þ° /…i 1  Ì>Žià >V̈œ˜ ̜ i˜ÃÕÀi
          absence of regulation of increased global space     Ài뜘ÈLi ˆ˜ÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜> >V̈ۈÌÞ ˆ˜ ë>Vi°
          >V̈ۈÌÞ°


          čà «>ÀÌ œv ÃiÌ̈˜} ̅i `ޘ>“ˆV ÀˆÃŽ Vœ˜ÌiÝÌ vœÀ -č]  , -č Vœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕœÕÃÞ ÃV>˜Ã ̅i Û>ÀˆœÕà ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ
          `iw˜i` vœÀ -č LÞ i“ˆ˜i˜Ì ÃVi˜>Àˆœ LՈ`iÀà L>Ãi` œ˜ ÜVˆ>] ˜>̈œ˜> «œˆVÞ] iVœ˜œ“ˆV >˜` }œL>
          trends.


            WHERE WE WILL BE IF THE                     WE ARE HERE                     WHERE WE WANT TO BE
              RISKS MATERIALISE








          Legend:
             Perpetual Hangover                  Fake it until we make it, or not?        Owning our future
          /…i  , -Ƃ ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ >Ài ˆ˜yÕi˜Vi` >˜` ˆ˜vœÀ“i` LÞ y>}ð /…iÃi y>}Ã] `i«i˜`ˆ˜} œ˜ ̅iˆÀ «iÀvœÀ“>˜Vi]
          `iÌiÀ“ˆ˜i ̅i ÃVi˜>Àˆœ œÕÌVœ“ið /…iÀi >Ài Ìi˜ y>}à ̜ Ü>ÌV… ̜ `iÌiÀ“ˆ˜i ܅ˆV… ÃVi˜>Àˆœ Üi >Ài ˆ˜ >˜`
          ̅i ÃVi˜>Àˆœ “œÃÌ ˆŽiÞ ̜ Li Ài>ˆÃi` ˆ˜ vÕÌÕÀi° /…iÞ >Ài\

                        .GCFGTUJKR                             6      Service delivery


                        +PUVKVWVKQPCN ECRCEKV[                 7      Inequality

                 3      Politics                               8      'EQPQO[


                 4      Social cohesion                        9      Global trends


                        0CVKQPCN RQNKE[                           %NKOCVG EJCPIG



          The table below depicts, based on the current       U   œ˜Ãœˆ`>̈˜} ÜVˆ> Ü>}i ̅ÀœÕ}… Àiˆ>Li]
          «iÀvœÀ“>˜Vi œv i>V… y>}] ̅i “œÃÌ ˆŽiÞ ÃVi˜>Àˆœ     quality basic services
          -Ƃ ˆÃ ˆ˜°  >V… y>} >˜` ̅i ÃVi˜>Àˆœ ˆÌ ˆ˜`ˆV>ÌiÃ]   •  Spatial integration, human settlements and local
          allows for a prediction on how the seven NDP          government
          œLiV̈Ûià “>Þ Li >V…ˆiÛi`° /…iÃi œLiV̈Ûià >ÀiÆ   • Social cohesion and safe communities
          U   Ո`ˆ˜} > V>«>Li] i̅ˆV> >˜` `iÛiœ«“i˜Ì>    • A better Africa and world
           state                                              This assumes the current outcomes as achieved
          U  Vœ˜œ“ˆV ÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“>̈œ˜ >˜` œL VÀi>̈œ˜          ̅ÀœÕ}… œÕÀ >V̈œ˜Ã >à > VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ] >VÀœÃà i>V… y>}
          U  `ÕV>̈œ˜] ΈÃ >˜` …i>Ì…                      Ài“>ˆ˜Ã ̅i Ã>“i°



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                                                                               T • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION
                                                                  IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION  27
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