Page 62 - Risk Report 2024

IRMSA
62 RISK REPORT 2024/25

8.9 Food Security

Vast challenges threaten access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for all citizens,
amidst uncertainties caused by the following drivers:

• Social degradation and declining ethical values (affecting vulnerable communities in geographical hotspots)
lead to conflicts in the absence of access to basic services. Along with violent crime, extortion, civil unrest, and
political instability, this disrupts food supply chains, trade routes, and markets (exacerbated by relocation of
communities, destruction of infrastructure, and disruption of agricultural activities).
• Increased demand for food due to population growth and overcrowded informal settlements (vulnerable
citizens and undocumented migrants), commensurate with competing land use through urbanisation.
• Increased demand adds pressure on agricultural systems and natural resources, leading to overexploitation
of land, water, and biodiversity, as well as pressure on distribution and food supply networks, and increased
reliance on food imports.
• Inflation and currency devaluation cause food price fluctuations, while higher interest rates reduce
profitability and discourage investment in agriculture.
• The cost of irrigation systems, and backup power to run pack houses and cold storage facilities under
inconsistent electricity supply conditions, reduce the amount, quality, and shelf life of food produced, and
is passed on to consumers.
• Trade barriers (export restrictions, lack of multilateral trade regimes, trade disputes, and market fluctuations)
oppress agricultural opportunities to market. This leads to redirection of export and import of goods through
ports of neighbouring countries, and affect food availability, and prices.
• Climate change
• Inconsistent seasonal atmospheric changes, rising temperatures, erratic weather patterns, and extreme
weather events reduce production and quality, cause loss of arable land, crop failures, affect livestock
health, impact fishing activities through aquatic ecosystem changes, cause price fluctuations, and
ultimately disrupt food distribution networks.
• Rising sea levels in coastal areas necessitate agricultural switches (from farming) and lead to poaching
and overfishing.
• A lack of proven technology to forecast climate outcomes to enable proactive adjustment.
• Displacement of populations due to environmental changes, leading to increased competition for
resources and food insecurity and illegal and illicit trading in poaching and overfishing.
• Conflicting life priorities as humans turn to wildlife as a food source for economic survival

NOMONDE NDHLOVU ALICIA DE WET KOBUS HURTER ANTONELLA DA CUNHA
Risk Manager Risk Manager Managing Director CRM Prof
Old Mutual Insure VKB AgricultSURE Head of Commercial Risk
Agrovision