Page 57 - Risk Report 2024

IRMSA
57
RISK REPORT 2024/25

Longer-term response to address risk

sustainably

Risk drivers Response strategies Impact

Supply shortage from unplanned Independently validate plant maintenance; strictly Short term:
generation failure; inconsistent match new power sources to decommissioned plants; High, from
maintenance; decommissioning do scenario planning for payment defaults to ensure sustained short-
(carbon emission reduction preservation of plant capacity; implement PPPs to term actions
requirements); financial optimise carbon reduction finance capital.
constraints from off-grid migration
and increasing non-payment by
local authorities; inadequate
use of carbon reduction finance
incentives.
Liquid fuel shortages (petrol, Conduct risk and threat assessments for inbound fuels Short term:
diesel) caused by disruption of with responses; protect multi product pipeline. High, from
refined fuel imports; failure of sustained short-
multi-product fuel pipelines due term focus
to damage/theft/unauthorised
access.
Gas shortages in view of the Implement national gas supply plan to secure gas field Medium term:
termination of supply from access and network development; implement PPPs to High
Mozambique in 2026. finance primary gas infrastructure.

National grid failure caused by Independently validate worst-case threats and responses Short term:
faults or deliberate damage to the to grid failure; do weather modelling for coal fields/ High, from
grid; floods impacting coal supply stockpiled coal at power stations. sustained short-
to power plants for weeks. term focus

Transmission network failures and Revise IPP and renewable power bids to include Medium term:
inadequacy of or delays in new transmission in rates; implement mutualised regional High
transmission capacity to support transmission PPPs.
renewable power plants.

Ineffective/inadequate migration Open access to international power utilities on 20+ year Medium term:
to new sources that increase total build-operate-transfer models for mini nuclear and gas High
capacity (while managing system power stations based inland or close to old coal power
inertia and stability requirements), stations (switch for decommissioning) and industrial
e.g. mini nuclear, renewables, regions using existing transmission capacity.
gas fired peaking stations (inland
sites); incorrect decisions on
capital allocation to transmission
versus localised power generation;
not opening networks to optimise
private/corporate power
generation.