Page 55 - Risk Report 2024

IRMSA
55
RISK REPORT 2024/25

Consequences of a national grid collapse could include the following:
• Communications network interruptions within 4 hours (voice, data).
• No access to cash or EFT channels when networks are down.
• Critical infrastructure/service failures when back-up power runs out.
• Water supply interruption (potable water, and operational water for use in power stations, data centres).
• Business and supply chain interruptions, loss of stock and revenue.
• Fuel shortages as storage at refineries and ports is depleted.
• Social unrest and increased syndicate operations.

High levels of loadshedding (as Eskom balances the demand and supply of electricity), with commensurate
impacts on households and organisations (business interruptions, business closure, unemployment,
and increased debt) have improved recently due to increased maintenance by Eskom and the uptake of
solar power reducing demand from the grid. Municipal load reduction resulting from inter alia insufficient
maintenance, loadshedding, and heightened crime, will continue to have revenue consequences for the
municipalities themselves, small businesses without back-up capacity, and communities.

Long-term sustainability of fuel energy supply is affected by demand and impacted by national policy decisions
(e.g. closure of local refineries, demand and manufacturing of cleaner fuels, greenhouse gas management
via carbon taxes and carbon budgets, environmental legislation compliance relating to minimum emission
standards, waste management, and water use licences, and planning and management of energy supply).
All of these are reliant on global imports, and are vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets, international
supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts, theft from oil and gas pipelines, and syndicate driven
operations leading to product shortages. In the medium-term, disruption of major energy-centric industries
(manufacturing, mining, construction, etc.) may lead to declining investor confidence, negative sentiments
of rating agencies, currency devaluation, and secondary impacts like decreased tourism and divestment.

Risk Impact on Economic Sectors

Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries 6 Mining 8
Communication 2 Professional Services 12
Construction & Real Estate 10 Public Service / Government 11
Education 14 Sport & Recreation 16
Energy 1 Tourism & Hospitality 13
Healthcare 3 Retail, Trade & Commerce 7
Financial Services 5 Transport & Logistics 4
Manufacturing 9 Non-Profit / Civil Society / NGOs 15