Page 56 - Risk Report 2024

IRMSA
56 RISK REPORT 2024/25
Scenario:

What it can look like if it happens now

A massive unanticipated generation breakdown or wide-scale transmission faults cause frequency in the grid to
drop below minimum stable levels. The system enters alert state, load shedding, load curtailment, and automatic
Under-Frequency Load controls fail, overwhelming the system and shutting it down. Eskom activates black start
plants, which fire up the rest of the power stations and gradually restore them to service over multiple days/
weeks, as per the National Grid Restoration Plan. Backup power is exhausted and communication networks
shut down. Water supply and sewage systems shut down after 8-12 hours. After multiple weeks (if power is not
restored), fuel shortages affect transport and industry. Supply chains break down, causing food shortages,
criminality, and violence.

Immediate resilience/emergency

preparedness: Medium impact in the

short term

Diversification Alternative Energy Sources Critical Process Resilience
Diversify electricity (location Evaluate reliance on Eskom power Identify time critical processes
and sources), grid capacity, and supply and explore alternatives and adopt practical recovery
allocation management (with (e.g. solar, gas, generators, plans for short term continuity.
reserve capacity exceeding peak batteries), adopt smart grid
demand, and distribution of technologies.
generators and fuel to key utility
locations).

Staff Resilience Contingency Testing Communicaton
Accommodate granular staff Test contingencies for Implement alternative
priorities during extended power vulnerabilities in supply and communication channels
outages through workarounds distribution networks, secure (satellite phones, internet
(e.g. flexitime, flexi-place priority services, and multi- connections, and high-frequency
arrangements). source where possible. radio) with clear protocols.

Stakeholder Readiness Business Continuity Activate BCP

Engage communities on Testing During extended power outages –
disaster readiness and advocate Increase frequency of scenario • deploy backups/
supportive policies. planning exercises, risk alternatives to power
assessments, and business critical infrastructure and
continuity plan testing, gather communication networks;
and analyse feedback, and • activate emergency
implement lessons learned. communication protocols and
infrastructure as per business
continuity plans;
• activate supply chain
contingencies, priority service
level agreements for critical
supplies; and
• collaborate with law
enforcement for public safety
and community resilience.