Page 53 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

South Africa Top Risks

FACTS AND FIGURES

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SOURCES

https://www.sars.gov.za/media-release/sars-welcomes-the-mtbps-revenue-announcement/
ÌÌ«Ã\ÉÉÜÜÜ°ˆ«Ã‡œÕÀ˜>°iÕÉ̜«ˆVÃÉiVœ˜œ“Þ‡>˜`‡iVœœ}ÞÉÜÕÌ ‡>vÀˆV>ǘiÛiÀ‡i˜`ˆ˜}‡VÀˆÃˆÃ‡xÎΣÉ
https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html#:~:text=Gross%20fixed%20
V>«ˆÌ>¯ÓävœÀ“>̈œ˜¯Óä­¯Óx¯Óäœv¯Óä *®¯Ó䈘¯Óä-œÕÌ ¯ÓäƂvÀˆV>]Vœ“«ˆi`¯ÓävÀœ“¯ÓäœvwVˆ>Þ¯ÓäÀiVœ}˜ˆâi`¯ÓäÜÕÀVið
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS?locations=ZA
ÌÌ«Ã\ÉÉLÕȘiÃÃÌiV °Vœ°â>ɘiÜÃÉw˜>˜ViÉxÎnÇÎ{ÉÀ£‡vœÀ‡iÛiÀއÀx‡À>ˆÃi`‡LއÜÕÌ ‡>vÀˆV>‡}œiÇ̜Ü>À`Ç}œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì‡`iLÌÉ
http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2021/review/Chapter%208.pdf
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/10/2350122/28124/en/South-Africa-State-Owned-Enterprises-Report-2021-Focus-
œ˜‡ >œÀ‡-Ì>Ìi‡œÜ˜i`‡ ˜ÌˆÌˆiÇ>˜`‡ ˜VÕ`iÇ ˜vœÀ“>̈œ˜‡œ˜‡Ì i‡ >œÀ‡ ˜ÌiÀ«ÀˆÃið ̓
https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/536794/the-shocking-cost-of-load-shedding-to-south-africas-economy/

EXPERT OPINION

Dr. Azar Jammine Mitch Ilbury Nicola Comninos Qiniso Mthembu
Director & Chief Director, Mindofafox Vice President, IRMSA Risk Intelligence Committee
Economist, Econometrix Member, IRMSA

SA’s economic growth has been in decline since 2007. 2018 led to hope that the economic decline trajectory
čvÌiÀ Ì i č ½Ã Óään Vœ˜viÀi˜Vi] œ˜i v>V̈œ˜ ̜œŽ œÛiÀ ܜՏ` Li ÀiÛiÀÃi`] LÕÌ ˆÌ >à Lii˜ ÏœÜ ˆ˜ Vœ“ˆ˜}° ˜
governing SA from another faction. The ruling faction’s "V̜LiÀ ÓäÓä] Ì i ,,* Ü>à >՘V i` ÜˆÌ ˆ˜Ìi˜`i`
ÃÌ>Ìi V>«ÌÕÀi «ÀœiVÌ Ã>Ü VœÀÀի̈œ˜ iÛiÃ ÀˆÃi] >˜` ÜVˆœ‡iVœ˜œ“ˆV ˆ˜ÌiÀÛi˜Ìˆœ˜Ã] Ì i ÃÕVViÃà œv Ü ˆV ˆ˜
ÀiÜÕÀVià `ˆÛiÀÌi` ̜ > Ó>] Üi‡Vœ˜˜iVÌi` ÃiV̈œ˜ remain to be seen. There has been a concerted effort
œv ÜVˆiÌÞ] «ÀiÛi˜Ìˆ˜} Ì i `iÛiœ«“i˜Ì >˜` Õ«ˆv̓i˜Ì by the judicial system to reverse the economic decline
of the general population. The collapse in growth >ÌÌÀˆLÕÌ>Li ̜ ÃÌ>Ìi V>«ÌÕÀi] œÜiÛiÀ] ˆÌ ˆÃ ̜œ ÏœÜ ̜
and concomitant rise in unemployment contributed prevent even greater economic decline.
̜ Ì i ÕÞ ÓäÓ£ ՘ÀiÃÌ° / i vÕÀÌ iÀ ՘i“«œÞ“i˜Ì A key focus should be on promoting infrastructural
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi `Õi ̜ "6 ‡£™ ˆ} ˆ} Ìi` Ì i ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀ> investment as a means of speeding up job creation.
economic decline. The change in SA leadership in

IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION 51