Page 59 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report

South Africa Top Risks

EXPERT OPINION

Dr. Anthony Turton Chris Yelland Wendy Poulton Michael Davies
Environmental Advisor, Managing Director, Co-opted to IRMSA Risk Co-opted to IRMSA Risk
Speaker and Author EE Business Intelligence Intelligence Committee Intelligence Committee

The risk to SA is that the current situation of large- and rules in parallel. Both require attention and focus.
ÃV>i `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜Ã œv iiVÌÀˆVˆÌÞ œÀ œ>`à i``ˆ˜}] ܈ ,iȏˆi˜Vi V>˜ Li LՈÌ LÞ Ì i `ˆvviÀi˜Ì ii“i˜Ìà œv Ì i
further deteriorate over the short to medium term ÃÞÃÌi“à ­ Μ“] “Õ˜ˆVˆ«>ˆÌˆià iÌV® ܜÀŽˆ˜} ̜}iÌ iÀ]
(1-3 years). At present we have the lowest energy building skills and even bringing back retired skills to
>Û>ˆ>LÞ v>V̜À iÛiÀ ÀiVœÀ`i`] >˜` Ì ˆÃ ܈ }iÌ ÜœÀÃi i« ˆ˜ Ì i à œÀÌiÀ ÌiÀ“° ˆ} iÛi `ˆÃVÕÃȜ˜Ã Ì >Ì
ˆ˜ ÓäÓÓ Ü i˜ œiLiÀ}] ­œ˜i œv Ì i ÃÞÃÌi“½Ã LiÃÌ set the strategic direction need to be managed at the
«iÀvœÀ“iÀî ܈ œÃi œ˜i œv ˆÌà ՘ˆÌà vœÀ ˜i>ÀÞ > Þi>À] ˆv national level. Some of the future risks to resilience
everything goes to plan. Due to a lack of maintenance ˆ˜VÕ`i vÕÀÌ iÀ «>˜Ì `>“>}i LiV>ÕÃi œv œ>`à i``ˆ˜}]
and low performance at new plant such as Kusile VÞLiÀ ÀˆÃŽÃ] Ã>LœÌ>}i >˜` >VŽ œv VœœÀ`ˆ˜>̈œ˜ œÀ
>˜` i`Õ«ˆ] Μ“ ܈ ÃÌÀÕ}}i ̜ “iiÌ `i“>˜`° alignment in implementing any new plans or strategies.

>˜Þ ÀˆÃŽÃ “>ÌiÀˆ>ˆÃi >Ã Ì i ˜Õ“LiÀ œv >À}i‡ÃV>i "««œÀÌ՘ˆÌˆià ˆ˜VÕ`i }Àˆ` ÃÌÀi˜}Ì i˜ˆ˜}] œ˜}
interruptions to utilities grow. We need to learn from `ÕÀ>̈œ˜ Ã̜À>}i] }Àii˜ Þ`Àœ}i˜ >˜` `ÀˆÛˆ˜} > ÕÃÌ
other countries that have struggled with these types of ÌÀ>˜ÃˆÌˆœ˜ ̜ v՘` ˜iÜ œLà >˜` ΈÃ° ˜ >``ˆÌˆœ˜]
ˆÃÃÕiÃ] `ÀˆÛi˜ LÞ ÃiÛiÀ> `ˆvviÀi˜Ì V>ÕÃià vÀœ“ ˆ˜ivviV̈Ûi > >ÃiÀ vœVÕà œ˜ i˜iÀ}Þ ivwVˆi˜VÞ ˆÃ ˜ii`i` œ˜ >
«œˆVÞ Ìœ Vˆ“>Ìi V >˜}i >˜` iÝÌÀi“i Üi>Ì iÀ ÀˆÃŽÃ° čà national scale with associated investments and further
Ì i i˜iÀ}Þ >˜` Ü>ÌiÀ ÃÞÃÌi“à }ÀœÜ >˜` V >˜}i] Ì iÞ encouraging own power generation or storage and
LiVœ“i “œÀi Vœ“«iÝ ÜˆÌ “>˜Þ “œÀi ˆ˜ÌiÀv>ViÃ] L>˜ŽÃ ÜˆÌ >««Àœ«Àˆ>Ìi w˜>˜Vˆ˜}°
all of which can cause disruptions. We have a good It is acknowledged that as this is a problem the
՘`iÀÃÌ>˜`ˆ˜} œv Ì i V>ÕÃià ˆ˜ -č] >˜` Ì iÞ ˆ˜VÕ`i ÃÌÀ>``ià “œÀi Ì >˜ œ˜i ÃiV̜À] }œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì “>Þ
ˆ˜>`iµÕ>Ìi ΈÃ] «>ÀœV ˆ> ˆ˜ÌiÀiÃÌÃ] “ˆÃ>ˆ}˜i` need to consider some innovative approaches to
«œˆVÞ] }Àˆ` Vœ˜ÃÌÀ>ˆ˜Ìà >˜` ÀiÛi˜Õi VœiV̈œ˜° ensure that our limited resources are managed for
-č č «Àœ`ÕVià >˜ >˜˜Õ> ˜iÀ}Þ ,ˆÃŽ ,i«œÀÌ vœÀ Ì i œ«Ìˆ“> Li˜iwÌ œv œÕÀ VˆÌˆâi˜Ã° / ˆÃ ܈ ÀiµÕˆÀi
-č >˜` “>˜Þ œv Ì iÃi ˆÃÃÕià >Ûi Lii˜ ˆ`i˜Ìˆwi` >à > ÀiۈiÜ œv Ì i *° - >œÜ V >˜}i ˆÃ >««i˜ˆ˜} ˆ˜
drivers of uncertainty and risk in SA. A framework of ˜Õ“iÀœÕà >Ài>Ã] À>Ì iÀ Ì >˜ `ii«] ÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>Li V >˜}i
ÀiVœ““i˜`>̈œ˜Ã >ÀœÕ˜` ˆ“«i“i˜Ì>̈œ˜] ˆ˜˜œÛ>̈œ˜] in a select few areas and without a long-term energy
impact and integration with people at the centre has ۈȜ˜ vœÀ Ì i VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ] ˆ˜Ìi}À>Ìi` ˆ˜vÀ>ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀi «>˜Ã
been developed and many of these recommendations >Ài ˜œÌ ˆ˜ «>Vi] “i>˜ˆ˜} Ì >Ì ÃiV̜À VœÕ«ˆ˜}] ˆÃ ˜œÌ
apply to the problem of large-scale interruptions.
being prioritised.
7 >Ì Üi `œ Ž˜œÜ] ˆÃ Ì >Ì Ü ˆi “>ÀŽiÌ ÀivœÀ“ ˆÃ > / iÀi ˆÃ ˜œ ȏÛiÀ LՏiÌ iÀi] «Àœ}ÀiÃà V>˜ œ˜Þ Li
˜iViÃÃ>ÀÞ ÃÌi«] ˆÌ ܈ ˜œÌ wÝ Ì i «ÀœLi“ œv >À}i‡ made with sustained and capable focus that looks at
ÃV>i ˆ˜ÌiÀÀի̈œ˜Ã ˆ˜ Ì i à œÀÌ ÌiÀ“] >˜` >à Üi the issues with a SA Inc lens and is continually adapting
>Ûi i>À˜Ì vÀœ“ “>˜Þ ˆ˜ÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜> iÝ>“«iÃ] Üi and changing as the world around us shifts. A very
may not be able to avoid them in the longer term «œÃˆÌˆÛi “œÛi Ü>Ã Ì i ˜iÜ }Àii˜ w˜>˜Vi `i> vœÀ -č
either. We must have a dual approach that not ÀiVi˜ÌÞ >˜˜œÕ˜Vi` >Ì "* ÓÈ° 7 >Ì Üi ˜ii` ˜œÜ
only addresses the short-term burning platform in is innovative approaches that recognise the lessons
electricity and water but builds resilience to these learnt elsewhere but acknowledge our unique national
ÃÞÃÌi“ à œVŽÃ] Ü ˆÃÌ >``ÀiÃȘ} Ì i “>ÀŽiÌ ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀi circumstances.

IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION 57