Page 90 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

8.2 HOW DO WE CREATE A FUTURE IN WHICH ALL CITIZENS CAN
PROSPER?

Scenario analysis involves exploring multiple possible future outcomes, rather than predicting one.
In this report, as in our 2022 and 2021 reports, we reaffirm our belief that risk management is a key
driver of our country’s ability to create a future in which all citizens can prosper. The need to drive a
focused, coherent approach to scenario planning, strategy definition, strategy implementation, risk
management and risk responses across all sectors of our economy remains imperative.

Scenario planning is the starting point in the process of creating our future. It helps us to understand:

• The likely scenarios that may materialise for South Africa and for our organisations.
• How our individual strategies could contribute or detract from our collective, sustainable
success.
• How risk appetite is the link between strategy and the scenarios we actively strive to influence.
• How we can implement risk-response strategies that would influence a preferred scenario to
materialise. The aim is to enable us to prosper if one scenario, or a combination of defined
scenarios, becomes our reality.

8.3 IRMSA’S SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

‘OUR SOLD-OUT ‘PERPETUAL ‘FAKE IT UNTIL WE ‘OWNING OUR
FUTURE’ HANGOVER’ MAKE IT OR NOT?’ FUTURE’

State, business, civil, and Short-termism is Despite understanding We jealously protect
criminal leaders control amplified by historically the consequences of our national well-being.
various aspects of our focused ideologies being in a ‘Perpetual We take individual and
lives. We survive despite, and relationships. Hangover’, we don’t collective charge of
not because, of these An economically and take decisions to make our future. We work to
leaders. We are no longer mentally exhausted things right. Younger eliminate the noise in
OUT OF STOCK
surprised by Institutional citizenry barely manages voices become more the system that distracts
failures. The national to prevent dissent into vocal, and they become us from our common
coalition government is chaos, supported by changemakers, even if purpose. We build
dysfunctional and out of some business and civil not yet fully understood national consensus to
touch with us. National society leaders trying by the majority, or by the drive a resilient society.
policy and international their best. Impractical “old guard”. We receive We optimise our limited
relations are rooted national policies our circumstances, resources to achieve a
in the past, instead of continue to degrade the instead of shaping our common goal across all
enabling our future. We foundations of economic future. The majority sectors of our economy.
yearn for clean water, growth and revival. continue to hope for the
reliable electricity, best, not realising that no *This scenario is no
rudimentary education, one is coming – that we longer plausible or
and basic healthcare. are the leaders we have achievable by 2030.
African Growth and been waiting for.
Opportunity Act (AGOA)
is long forgotten, the
Rand has tanked, with
rampant unemployment,
inequality, and an ever-
increasing death toll
due to food shortages
and unmitigated natural
disasters.

90 IRMSA RISK REPORT 2023/24