Page 89 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

8.1 INTRODUCTION

In a complex business environment, decision-makers are expected to create, grow and protect
value for the company and its stakeholders. In response to this growing complexity and in a world
SECTION 3: of accelerating change – emphasised by advancements in technology, global connectedness and
growing social consciousness – leaders need to incorporate a holistic approach to decision-making
to survive and thrive in a sustainable way.
Too often, leadership concerns themselves with hindsight and insight, without applying foresight in
a structured and integrated manner. Scenario planning is one of those future-looking processes that
entails a complete assessment of the threats and opportunities, as well as the resulting impacts on
SOUTH AFRICA the organisation, the society and the environment over the short, medium and long term.

SCENARIOS even in crisis. This is because scenario planning requires the consideration of alternative futures,
Scenario planning creates agility and flexibility, which in turn allows for innovation and creativity
systems thinking and key risk indicators, enabling reliable and fast decision-making.

Leaders must think holistically to enable the country to survive and thrive in a sustainable way.

ANALYTICAL CRITICAL SYSTEMS PROBABILITY
THINKING THINKING THINKING THINKING
Interrogating data, Distinguishing Seeing wholes, inter- Considering the
turning random data between claims with relationships rather possible outcomes of
points into information, evidence and those than things, historical random events (which
not discarding data without evidence; trends and future may be any one of
points without clear possibilities, patterns
confirmation of their openly seeking more of change rather than several) where the actual
irrelevance. facts to inform a static snapshots. outcome is determined
conclusion. by chance or yet
unknown information.

GAME THEORY COGNITIVE BIASES MOTIVATION
Understanding THEORY
Interrogating interactive
decision-making about decisions and actions Understanding and
uncertain futures, where are taken based on incorporating that
the outcome for each subconsciously selective people’s attempts at
participant depends on the use of data, in an fulfilling their basic
actions of all participants, unknowingly irrational needs can create internal
including themselves. way, based on emotions, pressures that can
past experiences and influence their behaviours
subjective future views. knowingly or unknowingly.

Table 1: Elements of Holistic Thinking

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