Page 4 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

TABLE OF

CONTENTS

1. TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

2. MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT OF IRMSA 6

3. PREFACE 10

4. HOW TO USE THIS REPORT 14
4.1 APPROACH 15
4.2 REPORT LAYOUT 16
4.3 NAVIGATING THE E-BOOK 17
4.4 FLOW 17

5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18
5.1 THE TOP RISKS FOR SOUTH AFRICA ARE: 19
5.2 SOUTH AFRICA TOP RISK PROFILE LINKED TO GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES 2023 20
5.3 SOUTH AFRICA TOP RISKS WITH HIGHEST IMPACT ON GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES 22
5.4 GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES MOST VULNERABLE TO THE
SOUTH AFRICA TOP RISKS 23
5.5 SOUTH AFRICA’S POLYCRISIS LEADING TO A FAILED STATE 24
5.6 SOUTH AFRICA’S ‘PERPETUAL HANGOVER’ 25
5.7 SOUTH AFRICA’S CALL TO ACTION 25

6. SECTION 1: SOUTH AFRICA RISK CONTEXT 26
6.1 INTRODUCTION 28
6.2 SOUTH AFRICA IS A STUDY IN COMPLEXITY. 29
6.3 THE SPECTRES OF THE PAST AND THE PRESENT. 30
6.4 THE FUTURE IS NOW. 32
6.5 INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY. 33
6.6 AREAS OF FOCUS. 34
6.7 CONCLUSION. 36

7. SECTION 2: SOUTH AFRICA TOP RISKS 38
7.1 SOUTH AFRICAN PRIORITIES AND TOP RISKS 2023/24 39
7.2 IRMSA SOUTH AFRICA RISKS 2023/24 39
7.3 FAILED STATE 40
7.4 EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOOD CRISIS 46
7.5 SYSTEMIC FAILURE OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE 50
7.6 ECONOMIC COLLAPSE 54
7.7 LARGE-SCALE INTERRUPTION OF DIGITALLY ENABLED SERVICES 60
7.8 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE ACTION FAILURE 66
7.9 GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY 70
7.10 PROLIFERATION OF ILLICIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 74
7.11 COLLAPSE OF SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS 78
7.12 NATIONAL GRID FAILURE 82

4 IRMSA RISK REPORT 2023/24