Page 32 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

KIREN MAHARAJ

6.4 THE FUTURE IS NOW

Amidst the familiarity of local problems, there is a sense of unpredictability and an
anticipation of the unknown. The fast ascent of AI experimental projects, as part of
technological advancement, have focussed attention on the understanding of these
technologies as sources of risk.

However, it is important to be aware of technology in a larger context and beyond
the sensational. Deresh explains: “I find the risk of large-scale disruption of digitally
enabled services and economic activity to be particularly significant. Our heavy
reliance on technology, especially with the increasing prominence of AI in various
industries, raises concerns about what might happen if we become too dependent on
it. Additionally, there is a pressing need for skills transformation, especially for low-
skilled workers who will need to upskill themselves to keep up with AI advancements.

One emerging discipline that will be critical is prompt engineering, which involves
understanding how to optimise AI for maximum benefits. However, the risk of such
technological services ceasing to function properly or providing incorrect information
without proper checks and balances could have severe consequences. As a leader, I
believe it is crucial to be aware of and prepared for these risks.”

While these systemic aspects have been flagged by IRMSA in the previous reports, the
risk of single events – for example, the possibility of a national failure of the electrical
grid – cannot be solely calculated as a systemic risk. This is a test of the resilience
of risk analysis itself. A sentiment reflected by all participants is the importance of
excellence, integration, and agility. For example, Chairperson of the South African
National Energy Association, Kiren Maharaj, explains that “A national blackout can be
caused for various other reasons. We’ve seen this in many countries overseas, where
they had sufficient power generation capacity available and sufficient load, and then
you have a very unexpected weather storm that causes huge critical network failures.
The possibility of having a blackout is always a reality.” It is clear from these diverse
Black Swan events that there are no comfortable lines between risk analysis; strategic
and executive action; and flash-point events or states of affairs.
To drive this point home, two large-scale drivers, namely climate change and energy,
are demonstrative of the need for rigor and integration of risk analysis within all
relevant aspects.
Advocate Kevin Malunga insists that a top priority is knowledge. He believes that
obtaining knowledge from educational institutions is crucial. Additionally, having
structures in place to keep people up to date as risk managers, as well as prepare the
entire workforce, is necessary.

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