Page 15 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

4.1 APPROACH
The scope of, and approach to, the compilation of the Report includes the following:

A review of the past:
This involved a review of, and a reflection on, the risks and trends emanating from the IRMSA Risk
Reports over the last four years, as well as an analysis of the challenges and successes specific to the
movement of the risks reported on to date.
HOW TO USE The present:
This involved global, continental, and national risk analysis using credible data sources, along with
the interviewing of subject-matter experts and business leaders to identify potential threats and
THIS REPORT opportunities across a range of risk categories, causes and consequences.

This year’s approach did not centre on the technical assessment of the impact and likelihood of
the risks, as the focus was on finding answers to the recurring nature of our risk profile and the
various degrees of risks becoming a reality. The interconnectedness of the South African risk profile
indicates a polycrisis enroute to a polyrisk of a Failed State or even a Mafia State. The ranking of
the risks was less of a focus than the identification of common causes and common risk-response
strategies to alter course as directed by the interconnectedness map and scenarios.

The future:
This involved the development of risk scenarios and the projection of the most likely scenario
outcome based on the mapping of risk drivers and risk outcomes. It also entailed the linking of
the scenarios to causes, as well as suggesting the potential changes in the scenario road map, this
depending on potential risk-response strategies available for implementation.

The concept of a polycrisis and polyrisk is new to our report. The mapping of risk drivers and risk
outcomes was performed to enable commentary on how the South African polycrisis could be
defined and responded to, if not proactively averted.

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