Page 12 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023
P. 12
“Your fears never
While the specific risks identified in IRMSA’s go away. You
previous Risk Reports may have varied, mostly
the same trends have emerged that provide
motivation for the premise that South Africa just get more
is in a polycrisis and possibly entering a
comfortable
Failed State or onward towards a Mafia State:
• Economic challenges have consistently been
identified as a major risk for South Africa over ignoring them.”
the past eight years. These challenges include
no or slow economic growth or regression, high Jason Ritter
unemployment and persistent inequality.
• Political instability and the lack of ethical and
visionary leadership have also been recurring
risks for South Africa, with concerns over
corruption, governance, the rule of law and
breakdown in public service delivery being
common themes. More recently, the foreign
policy of South Africa or at least the stance
taken/not taken regarding global events, e.g.,
the war in the Ukraine.
• Social unrest has become an increasingly The IRMSA Risk Reports repeatedly highlighted
prominent risk in recent years, with protests the outcomes related to these risks, which have all
and riots linked to issues such as poor materialised to various degrees of consequence.
service delivery, poverty and inequality, high South Africa continues to face a lack of ethical and
unemployment, and unprecedented political visionary leadership; persistent inequality; high
corruption. unemployment; and slow economic growth. In
• Environmental risks, particularly related to the very short term, the country will also have to
climate change, extreme weather events find risk-response strategies to tackle the impacts
and water scarcity, have also emerged as key of climate change; a persistent energy crisis; and
concerns over the past eight years. a significantly increasing infrastructure crisis. A
• Technological disruption is also an issue, potential shift in the current political dispensation
particularly in the form of cyber vulnerabilities; must also be factored in, to provide value in a
dependencies on the Internet of Things; and sustainable manner very quickly. International
the rise in artificial intelligence, automation and threats and opportunities, such as changes in global
digital platforms. trade patterns and geopolitical tensions, have also
• Climate change adaptation, as the result of been added to the growing list of risks that South
continued carbon-intensive industries in SA Africa needs to respond to.
hampering the move towards a lower-carbon
economy and a Just Economic Transition. The
mining and energy industries (electricity, oil, Against this backdrop, the Report provides an
and gas) are going to be significantly impacted analysis of the key risks, its consequences, causes
by this transition, with direct consequences and recommended risk response strategies. The
for the economy, employment, and socio- impact of these risk elements is linked to the
economic levers. National Development Plan 2030 objectives and
• Failing public infrastructure, particularly to the Government Priorities for 2023. This Report
our large state-owned enterprises, resulting in also examines the interconnections between these
national freight rail, electricity, and water supply risks, as well as their projected impacts on the three
failures across the country with resultant knock- scenarios that IRMSA has developed for SA.
on impacts on food security and the general
health of the most vulnerable in society.
12 IRMSA RISK REPORT 2023/24