Page 12 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023
P. 12

“Your fears never


             While  the  specific  risks  identified  in  IRMSA’s              go away. You
             previous  Risk  Reports  may  have  varied,  mostly
             the  same  trends  have  emerged  that  provide
             motivation  for  the  premise  that  South  Africa               just get more
             is in a polycrisis and possibly entering a
                                                                                 comfortable
             Failed  State  or  onward  towards  a  Mafia  State:

             •   Economic challenges have consistently been
                 identified as a major risk for South Africa over        ignoring them.”
                 the past eight years. These challenges include
                 no or slow economic growth or regression, high                            Jason Ritter
                 unemployment and persistent inequality.
             •   Political instability and the lack of ethical and
                 visionary leadership have also been recurring
                 risks  for  South  Africa,  with  concerns  over
                 corruption,  governance,  the  rule  of  law  and
                 breakdown  in  public  service  delivery  being
                 common  themes.    More  recently,  the  foreign
                 policy of South Africa or at least the stance
                 taken/not taken regarding global events, e.g.,
                 the war in the Ukraine.
             •   Social unrest  has become an increasingly     The IRMSA Risk Reports repeatedly highlighted
                 prominent  risk  in  recent  years,  with  protests   the outcomes related to these risks, which have all
                 and riots linked to issues such as poor       materialised  to  various  degrees  of  consequence.
                 service  delivery,  poverty  and  inequality,  high   South Africa continues to face a lack of ethical and
                 unemployment,  and  unprecedented  political   visionary  leadership;  persistent  inequality;  high
                 corruption.                                   unemployment;  and  slow  economic  growth.  In
             •   Environmental  risks,  particularly  related  to   the  very  short term,  the  country  will  also  have  to
                 climate  change,  extreme  weather  events    find risk-response strategies to tackle the impacts
                 and water scarcity, have also emerged as key   of climate change; a persistent energy crisis; and
                 concerns over the past eight years.           a  significantly  increasing  infrastructure  crisis.  A
             •   Technological  disruption  is  also  an  issue,   potential shift in the current political dispensation
                 particularly in the form of cyber vulnerabilities;   must  also  be  factored  in,  to  provide  value  in  a
                 dependencies  on  the  Internet  of  Things;  and   sustainable  manner  very  quickly.  International
                 the rise in artificial intelligence, automation and   threats and opportunities, such as changes in global
                 digital platforms.                            trade patterns and geopolitical tensions, have also
             •   Climate  change  adaptation,  as  the  result  of   been added to the growing list of risks that South
                 continued carbon-intensive industries in SA   Africa needs to respond to.
                 hampering  the  move  towards  a  lower-carbon
                 economy and a Just Economic Transition. The
                 mining  and  energy  industries  (electricity,  oil,   Against  this  backdrop,  the  Report  provides  an
                 and gas) are going to be significantly impacted   analysis of the key risks, its consequences, causes
                 by  this  transition,  with  direct  consequences   and recommended risk response strategies. The
                 for  the  economy,  employment,  and  socio-  impact of these risk elements is linked to the
                 economic levers.                              National  Development  Plan  2030  objectives  and
             •   Failing  public  infrastructure,  particularly  to   the  Government  Priorities  for  2023.  This  Report
                 our large state-owned enterprises, resulting in   also examines the interconnections between these
                 national freight rail, electricity, and water supply   risks, as well as their projected impacts on the three
                 failures across the country with resultant knock-  scenarios that IRMSA has developed for SA.
                 on impacts on food security and the general
                 health of the most vulnerable in society.




             12                                                                                   IRMSA RISK REPORT 2023/24
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