Page 24 - IRMSA Risk Report 2023

5.5 SOUTH AFRICA’S POLYCRISIS LEADING TO A FAILED OR MAFIA
STATE

Graphics 1 and 2 show the risks linked to the Government Priorities for 2023. The six priorities,
when positioned in relation to each other, show a clear virtuous cycle of prioritised focus with
progress in one area supporting advances in others.

Undoubtedly, the risk profile of South Africa (Graphic 4) has evolved into a polycrisis which if not
managed quickly and effectively will manifest into a Failed State or worse, a Mafia State. The
design and implementation of the risk-response strategies to address these interacting risks, will
require trade-offs (Graphic 4) that will address some risks and exacerbate others.

This is South Africa’s ‘polycrisis’ profile!

IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE AND CLIMATE ACTION FAILURE
SYSTEMIC
NATIONAL
FAILURE OF
GRID
PUBLIC
FAILURE
INFRASTRUCTURE

POLITICAL
INSTABILITY

COLLAPSE OF SOCIAL LARGE SCALE
SECURITY SYSTEMS
DISRUPTION OF
DIGITALLY ENABLED
SERVICES
ECONOMIC
COLLAPSE

INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT AND PROLIFERATION OF ILLICIT
LIVELIHOOD CRISIS
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Graphic 4: South Africa’s Polycrisis Profile.

LEGEND

1. 2.
MAKING RESTORE ENERGY
GOVERN- SECURITY
MENT WORK
6.
BUILDING
BETTER
LIVES 3. COLOURS: LINKING THE RISK TO THE GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES
FIGHTING
CORRUPTION
5.
MAKING
ECONOMIES 4.
SAFER GROWING
ECONOMY
AND JOBS
DRIVERS: RISKS THAT SIGNIFICANTLYDRIVE SOUTHAFRICA TOWARDS A POLYCRISIS
OUTCOMES: RISKS THAT MAY HAVE A LEVEL OF INFLUENCE ON OTHER RISKS, BUT
PREDOMINANTLY ARE OUTCOMES FROM THE EXTENT TO WHICH DRIVERS MATERIALISE.
DOMINANT RELATIONSHIP (DRIVER): INFLUENCER OF OTHER RISKS
RECIEVER RELATIONSHIP (OUTCOME): RISK INFLUENCED BY OTHER RISKS
REITERATIVE RELATIONSHIP: RISKS ARE BOTH DRIVERS AND OUTCOMES IMPACTING
OTHER RISKS BEING IMPACTED BY OTHER RISKS.

24 IRMSA RISK REPORT 2023/24