Page 13 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report
P. 13

Overview





                  These risk-cause-consequence relationships determine the drivers that impact other risks,
                     CPF YJGTG HQEWU QP EGTVCKP OKVKICVKQP CEVKQPU YKNN JCXG VJG OQUV DGPGƂEKCN QWVEQOG
                                                 CETQUU QWT EQWPVT[ TKUM RTQƂNG




                        DRIVERS                            PIVOTS                           OUTCOMES


                ,ˆÃŽÃ ̅>Ì >Ài >Ãœ “>œÀ       Risks, that if they change,        Risks and opportunities
                  causes of other risks         v՘`>“i˜Ì>Þ V…>˜}i ̅i           ̅>Ì >Ài ̅i ÀiÃÕÌ œv ̅i
                                                      entire system                   system dynamics
            •  >VŽ œv ΈÃ ̜ i˜>Li        • *ÀiÛi˜Ìˆ˜} ̅i Vœ“«iÌi         •  ˜VÀi>Ãi ˆ˜ i“«œÞ“i˜Ì
               growth and recovery               LÀi>Ž`œÜ˜ œv i̅ˆV> >˜`       •  Narrowing of the income
            U    >À}i‡ÃV>i `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜ œv        i}> «Àˆ˜Vˆ«ià >VÀœÃà           `ˆÃ«>ÀˆÌÞ >˜` ˆ˜iµÕ>ˆÌÞ
               iVœ˜œ“ˆV >V̈ۈÌÞ ÀiÞˆ˜}         society                        •  Eradication of systemic fraud
               œ˜ ÃÌ>Li ÃÕ««Þ œv ṎˆÌˆià  U   ƂV…ˆiÛi“i˜Ì œv ÃÌ>Li            and corruption
            U    >À}i‡ÃV>i ˆ˜ÌiÀÀի̈œ˜ œv      ṎˆÌÞ ÃiÀۈVià               U   /…i ÜVˆ> Vœ“«>VÌ LiÌÜii˜
               `ˆ}ˆÌ>Þ i˜>Lià ÃiÀۈVià     U   *Àœ“œÌˆ˜} ÃiVÕÀi `ˆ}ˆÌ>         government and citizens
               and economic activity             security                          ˆ“«ÀœÛià `À>“>̈V>Þ
            U    œ“«iÌi iVœ˜œ“ˆV             U   -iVÕÀi ÃiÀۈVià ̜ «ÕLˆV     •  Trade imports improve and SA
               Vœ>«Ãi                          `iˆÛiÀÞ                          ˆÃ Ãii˜ >à > i>`ˆ˜} LÕȘiÃÃ
                                              U   1˜œVŽ œ««œÀÌ՘ˆÌˆià             …ÕL ˆ˜ ƂvÀˆV>
                                                 ˆ˜ Vˆ“>Ìi V…>˜}i ÀˆÃŽ         U   /…i  œ˜Ã̈ÌṎœ˜ >˜` ÀՏi œv
                                                 response strategies               >Ü >Ài ÀiëiVÌi`


             HIGH VALUE RISK RESPONSES

            ,ˆÃŽ ÌÀi>̓i˜Ì œ«Ìˆœ˜Ã ̅>Ì] ˆv ˆ“«i“i˜Ìi` ÃÕVViÃÃvՏÞ] ܈ …>Ûi ̅i …ˆ}…iÃÌ ˆ“«>VÌ >VÀœÃà ̅i
            `ÀˆÛiÀà ˆ`i˜Ìˆwi` >LœÛi°
            U  “«i“i˜Ì Vœ˜ÃiµÕi˜Vi “>˜>}i“i˜Ì\
               œ vœÀ v>ˆÕÀi ̜ iÝiVÕÌi }œÛiÀ˜>˜Vi Ài뜘ÈLˆˆÌˆiÃ
               œ vœÀ v>ˆÕÀi ̜ iÝiVÕÌi «iÀvœÀ“>˜Vi Ài뜘ÈLˆˆÌˆiÃ
            U  “«i“i˜Ì ivviV̈Ûi Vœ˜ÌÀœ vÀ>“iܜÀŽÃ
            U   ,>ˆÃi ivviV̈Ûi «ÕLˆV ˆ˜Ã̈ÌṎœ˜Ã ̜ ˆ“«i“i˜Ì ivviV̈Ûi Vœ˜ÃiµÕi˜Vi “>˜>}i“i˜Ì >˜` ̜
               «ÀœÌiVÌ Ì…i VˆÌˆâi˜Ã ­Ü…ˆÃ̏iLœÜˆ˜}®
            U ,iÃ̜Ài] ÃÌÀi˜}̅i˜ >˜` i}ˆÌˆ“ˆÃi >܇i˜vœÀVi“i˜Ì >}i˜VˆiÃ
            U  œÀ“>ˆÃi i̅ˆV> Li…>ۈœÕÀ ܈̅ Vi>À >˜` ۈÈLi >V̈œ˜ Ì>Ži˜ ܅i˜ ˜iViÃÃ>ÀÞ
            U   Ƃ««œˆ˜Ì Έi` >˜` iÝ«iÀˆi˜Vi` “i“LiÀà >Ì  œ>À`]  ÝVœ >˜` ƂVVœÕ˜Ìˆ˜} ƂÕ̅œÀˆÌÞ iÛiÃ LÞ
               ˆ“«i“i˜Ìˆ˜} *** ̜ LÀˆ˜} ˆ˜ ̅i ÀiµÕˆÀi` ΈÃ ˆ““i`ˆ>ÌiÞ
            U 1«ÃŽˆ i`ÕV>̈œ˜ >˜` ÌÀ>ˆ˜ˆ˜} ˆ˜Ã̈ÌṎœ˜ >˜` i`ÕV>̜ÀÃ] >˜` i˜VœÕÀ>}i ˆ˜˜œÛ>̈œ˜
            U    …>˜}i }œÛiÀ˜>˜Vi ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀià ̜ >VVœ““œ`>Ìi ëii` œv V…>˜}i >˜` i˜VœÕÀ>}i Ó>
               LÕȘiÃà >˜` i˜ÌÀi«Ài˜iÕÀÃ


          The urgency of actual execution of risk mitigation actions cannot be overstressed, as SA is arguably
          >à VœÃi ̜ > v>ˆi` ÃÌ>Ìi >à ˆÌ …>à Lii˜ ȘVi ̅i wÀÃÌ `i“œVÀ>̈V iiV̈œ˜Ã ˆ˜ £™™{°
          /…i vÕÌÕÀi] ˜œÜ “œÀi ̅>˜ iÛiÀ] ˆÃ ˜œÌ ܅>Ì ˆÌ ÕÃi` ̜ Li°  Ì ˆÃ ˆ˜ ̅i …>˜`à œv VˆÌˆâi˜Ã] ܅œ >Ài ̅i
          i>`iÀà >Ì iÛiÀÞ iÛi ˆ˜ œÕÀ ÜVˆiÌÞ] ̜ Ì>Ži ̅i VœÀÀiV̈Ûi >˜` ÕÀ}i˜Ì >V̈œ˜ ̜ “>Ži ̅i ¼"ܘˆ˜} œÕÀ
           ÕÌÕÀi½ ÃVi˜>Àˆœ Vœ“i ÌÀÕi° Ƃà *ÀœviÃÜÀ  œ˜>˜}  œ…>i œ«ˆ˜i`] º-Ƃ …>à >˜ >“>∘} >LˆˆÌÞ Ìœ }œ ̜
          ̅i «ÀiVˆ«ˆVi >˜` «Õ L>VŽ ÕÃÌ ˆ˜ ̈“i° /…iÀi ˆÃ > `ii« Àiȏˆi˜Vi ̅>Ì >œÜà ˆÌ ̜ i˜`ÕÀi ÌÀ>Փ> >˜`
          Vœ“i œÕÌ œ˜ ̅i œÌ…iÀ È`i° /…iÀi ˆÃ >Ãœ >˜ >“>∘} Ãi˜Ãi œv }œœ`܈ q “œÃÌ -œÕ̅ ƂvÀˆV>˜Ã Ü>˜Ì -Ƃ ̜
          ÃÕVVii`°» 7i vi>À ̅>Ì Üi “>Þ …>Ûi «ÕÅi` œÕÀ ÕVŽ ̜œ v>À ̅ˆÃ ̈“i° /…i ÃVi˜>Àˆœ ̅>Ì Üˆ “>ÌiÀˆ>ˆÃi
          ܈ `i«i˜` œ˜ œÕÀ ÕÀ}i˜Ì >˜` `iVˆÃˆÛi >V̈œ˜° /ˆ“i ˆÃ œv ̅i >L܏ÕÌi iÃÃi˜Vi°

                                                                  IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION  11
   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18